U.S. natural gas production will climb to 111.0 billion cubic feet per day next year. Demand follows close behind at 92.1 Bcf/d. Both figures mark fresh all-time highs. The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration delivers those numbers with little fanfare. Yet they signal sustained strength across the sector even as prices stay contained.
The June 9 update raised its 2026 production forecast from the previous month’s projection of 110.6 Bcf/d. Consumption rose to 92.1 Bcf/d from 91.2 Bcf/d. Reuters first reported the revisions. The figures build on 2025 records of 107.7 Bcf/d for output and 91.9 Bcf/d for consumption. Growth continues into 2027 with production at 113.6 Bcf/d and demand reaching 95.0 Bcf/d.
LNG exports drive much of the expansion. They jump from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 to 17.2 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf/d the following year. New liquefaction capacity coming online pulls molecules toward Gulf Coast terminals. Pipeline exports to Mexico add another layer of demand. Domestic use grows more modestly. Industrial buyers and power generators both contribute.
Associated gas from oil-directed drilling in the Permian Basin explains much of the supply increase. Higher crude prices earlier this year encouraged operators to keep rigs running. That oil output brings wet gas along for the ride. The EIA now expects 4.6 Bcf/d more production in 2027 than it forecasted back in January. Haynesville output rises too. Producers there respond directly to gas prices and LNG feedgas needs.
But prices won’t spike. Henry Hub should average around $3.60 per million British thermal units in 2026 before easing to $3.46 in 2027. Storage levels look healthier than earlier projections suggested. More gas held in inventory blunts potential rallies. May’s spot price averaged $2.94. It crept above $3.00 late in the month as summer cooling demand picked up. Still, the forward curve sits lower than previous outlooks.
Industrial appetite keeps climbing despite efficiency gains
Factories consumed a record 23.6 Bcf/d in 2025. That topped the prior mark of 23.4 Bcf/d set in 2023. The EIA sees further gains. Industrial use rises 0.3 Bcf/d in 2026 and another 0.4 Bcf/d in 2027. A natural gas-weighted manufacturing index climbs 1.5% next year and 0.7% after that. Chemicals remain the biggest single consumer. Seasonal swings stay pronounced. January 2027 could see 26.7 Bcf/d while June stays closer to 22.6 Bcf/d.
Efficiency improvements offset some of that growth. Better process heaters and heat recovery systems reduce the amount of gas needed for each unit of output. Gains in manufacturing activity still win out. The result? Consecutive annual records through 2027. The EIA detailed those industrial trends in a separate note.
Power generators hold their share of the mix near 40%. They burn less coal. Coal output falls from 528.4 million short tons in 2025 to 518.4 million in 2026. The shift supports gas demand without dramatic growth in the electric sector. Overall U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions dip slightly in 2026 before a modest rebound.
Recent data backs the optimism. Dry gas production hit 110.9 Bcf/d in March. That was the second-highest monthly average since 1973. Marketed output in the Lower 48 averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter. The EIA sees that climbing to 118.9 Bcf/d for the full year.
Traders and producers watch these forecasts closely. Higher LNG volumes require reliable pipeline delivery to export plants. Any hiccup in associated gas flows from the Permian could tighten balances fast. Yet the numbers suggest infrastructure keeps pace for now. Storage injections this spring have been solid. Inventories should stay above five-year averages through much of the forecast period.
Global context matters too. European buyers still value U.S. cargoes even after milder winters reduced urgency. Asian demand grows with new terminals. The EIA’s longer-range Annual Energy Outlook sees dry gas output rising as much as 40% by 2050 in some cases. LNG exports could double. Domestic power use expands with data centers and manufacturing revival in certain regions.
Short-term realities look steadier. Production growth outpaces demand increases in 2026. That keeps a lid on prices. But the gap narrows in 2027 as consumption accelerates. Operators in Appalachia, Haynesville and the Permian must maintain drilling pace. Rig counts have moderated in some basins. Efficiency at existing wells helps. So does associated gas that arrives whether gas prices justify it or not.
The original Investing.com report captured the headline numbers accurately. It noted the upward revisions from May. Its coverage aligned closely with the official release. Later analysis from S&P Global and Natural Gas Intelligence highlighted how export pull continues to exceed production growth in some scenarios. That dynamic supports firmer prices than many expected six months ago.
So the outlook holds. Records fall again in 2026. Supply rises. Demand absorbs it. LNG ships sail. Factories hum. Power plants switch fuels. And Henry Hub stays range-bound. The numbers look straightforward on the page. The market’s ability to deliver them without disruption will test operators, midstream companies and policymakers alike.