Musk’s Empire Gambit: SpaceX Eyes Tesla or xAI Merger Ahead of Mega-IPO

Elon Musk’s sprawling business domain faces a pivotal moment as SpaceX weighs mergers with either Tesla Inc. or xAI, according to insiders cited in recent reports. The discussions, described as preliminary, signal the billionaire’s push to integrate his ventures amid preparations for a blockbuster initial public offering. SpaceX has explored the feasibility of combining with Tesla, an notion advanced by certain investors, while separately considering a tie-up with xAI to consolidate AI capabilities before going public.

These overtures come as SpaceX, valued at around $800 billion in a recent secondary sale, targets an IPO that could reach $1.5 trillion, potentially raising up to $50 billion. Tesla shares surged as much as 4.5% in after-hours trading following the Bloomberg disclosure on January 29, 2026, reflecting market anticipation despite no final decisions. Representatives for SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI declined immediate comment.

Two Nevada entities named K2 Merger Sub Inc. and K2 Merger Sub 2 LLC, formed on January 21, 2026, list SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen as an officer, hinting at preparatory moves, per filings noted by TechCrunch.

Strategic Synergies in Orbit

Musk envisions orbital data centers powered by SpaceX rockets to fuel AI demands, a concept that could supercharge xAI’s Grok chatbot. “xAI could benefit enormously from computing capacity provided by SpaceX’s data centers in orbit, if the company can make the engineering work,” sources told Bloomberg. Tesla’s energy storage expertise, including Megapack systems, might enable solar-powered space infrastructure.

A SpaceX-xAI merger would exchange xAI shares for SpaceX equity, with some xAI executives potentially opting for cash, according to a person familiar cited by Reuters. This follows xAI’s 2025 acquisition of X (formerly Twitter) in a deal valuing xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, folding social data into AI training.

SpaceX’s prior $2 billion investment in xAI, alongside Tesla’s fresh $2 billion stake announced January 28, underscores deepening ties. Tesla’s filing states the investment, dated January 16, 2026, aims to “enhance Tesla’s ability to develop and deploy AI products and services into the physical world at scale.”

Investor Pressures and Valuation Clashes

Some investors advocate a SpaceX-Tesla union, drawn by synergies like deploying Tesla’s Optimus robots via Starship to the moon and Mars. Yet Tesla’s $1.56 trillion market cap dwarfs xAI’s private valuation, raising dilution fears for public shareholders. “Tesla shareholders are urged to be very concerned, as they would hold the short end of any deal,” warned Electrek.

Infrastructure funds and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth entities eye any transaction, per Reuters, with banks like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley poised for IPO roles. Robinhood Markets vies for retail distribution. Johnsen told employees in December that an IPO would fund an “insane flight rate” for Starship and a lunar base.

Past consolidations, such as Tesla’s 2016 SolarCity buyout and xAI’s X integration, fuel self-dealing scrutiny. Tesla faces lawsuits alleging fiduciary breaches over its xAI outlay, claiming it props up Musk’s private holdings where he owns larger stakes.

IPO Timing and Execution Hurdles

SpaceX eyes a June 2026 listing around Musk’s birthday, per Financial Times reports cited in TechCrunch, though Musk’s timelines often shift. A merger could streamline assets like Starlink satellites, X platform, and Grok under one public entity, boosting appeal amid AI hype.

Challenges abound: SpaceX’s profitability contrasts xAI’s cash burn, with Reddit discussions decrying added debt. Orbital data centers remain conceptual, demanding breakthroughs in power and cooling. Regulatory hurdles loom for cross-company deals involving a public entity like Tesla.

Tesla’s recent moves, including Optimus sales plans and Dojo chip revival, intersect with SpaceX ambitions. Musk has mused on Starship lofting Tesla hardware extraterrestrially, per Bloomberg links.

Risk Factors and Shareholder Backlash

Critics highlight misaligned incentives: Musk controls over 40% of SpaceX versus 13% of Tesla (with options). A three-way merger rumor persists, but SpaceX-xAI appears likelier, avoiding public scrutiny. “It’s clearly bad… saddling them with that debt and unprofitability,” one Reddit user posted on r/SpaceXLounge.

Tesla’s auto margins compress amid slowing demand, contrasting SpaceX’s NASA contracts and Starlink revenue. xAI competes with OpenAI and Google, eyeing space compute as Earth facilities strain grids, per Reuters.

Forbes notes Musk’s aversion to premature public markets, citing a 2013 email: “increasingly concerned about SpaceX going public before the Mars transport system is in place.” Yet IPO momentum builds, valuing Musk’s net worth above $765 billion.

Broadening Musk’s Interconnected Web

Existing pacts reveal entwinement: SpaceX billed Tesla $2.4 million in 2024 for services; Tesla spent $800,000 on Musk’s jet via SpaceX. xAI leverages X data, now potentially orbiting via Starlink. A deal could attract Saudi or Abu Dhabi funds, mirroring xAI backers.

Market reactions mixed: Tesla rebounded 3% post-bell per Reuters, but long-term viability hinges on execution. No updates emerged by January 30, with insiders stressing fluidity: “No final decisions have been made, details could change.”

As SpaceX dominates launches with reusable Falcons, a merger positions Musk against Big Tech in AI-space fusion, redefining his empire’s trajectory.